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〖尋正按：中國政府在科學(xué)態(tài)度上落后于日本，處理問題的方式上粗暴無理，習(xí)慣于壓制言論，而非提倡正確的科學(xué)知識普及，沒有旗幟鮮明地反對地震預(yù)測術(shù)，仍然沉迷在中國在地震預(yù)測上走在世界前列的臆想當(dāng)中，壓制了民間地震預(yù)測，仍留下了地震局預(yù)測的大尾巴，跟偽科學(xué)偶斷似連，地震局在地震災(zāi)難的應(yīng)對上存在極大失策。此新聞與中國出臺地震預(yù)告新規(guī)定同時登在《自然》雜志上。〗

日本要理解，而非預(yù)測，地震

Asako Saegusa, tokyo, tokyo

據(jù)日本總理的一個顧問團(tuán)的建議，日本的地震研究不應(yīng)當(dāng)是預(yù)測地震，而是集中在理解地震的發(fā)生機(jī)理，這樣的政策轉(zhuǎn)向?yàn)榘l(fā)展新的災(zāi)難預(yù)防技術(shù)所必需。

該項(xiàng)研究計劃由促進(jìn)地震研究總部（HERP）在上周發(fā)布，其目的是為日本在未來10年的地震研究確定方向，會對國家研究機(jī)構(gòu)從四月開始的1999財務(wù)年開始的項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生影響〖即政府不再資助任何預(yù)測研究〗。

成功預(yù)測地震可能不現(xiàn)實(shí)，這在日本已逐漸成為共識。去年，向教育、科學(xué)、運(yùn)動、與文化部提供資詢的地質(zhì)委員會針對長達(dá)30年的試圖短期預(yù)測地震的政策進(jìn)行了改變，把重心移向了針對可能發(fā)生大地震的地區(qū)的長期預(yù)告（見1998年《自然》第393期202卷）。

HERP的計劃進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)了獨(dú)立于地震預(yù)測的災(zāi)難預(yù)防技術(shù)的研究與發(fā)展、進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)調(diào)了通過衛(wèi)星觀測對地震發(fā)生的基礎(chǔ)研究，比如基于全球定位系統(tǒng)的研究。

在1995神戶地震以后設(shè)立的HERP是為促進(jìn)政府部門、大學(xué)、與研究機(jī)構(gòu)之間的協(xié)作，HERP意識到自已的主要目標(biāo)是尋找減少大地震的后果的方法措施。它試圖通過分析與模擬地震性的大地振動與建立收集即時地震數(shù)據(jù)的體系而實(shí)現(xiàn)其目標(biāo)。

盡管該計劃強(qiáng)調(diào)某些地震預(yù)測研究，比如對地震帶的地質(zhì)物理與地質(zhì)結(jié)構(gòu)的研究，它呼吁放棄基于數(shù)據(jù)的技術(shù)分析〖即在中國真假地震學(xué)家中盛行的數(shù)據(jù)規(guī)律分析方法〗。它宣布依靠現(xiàn)有科技而準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)告地震時間是“極度困難”的。

“盡管預(yù)測項(xiàng)目把重心移到了長期預(yù)測上，仍然難以保證此類預(yù)測的現(xiàn)實(shí)可能性”，東京大學(xué)的地震學(xué)教授Mitsuhiro Matsuura說，“地震研究的目的不是猜測什么時候一個地震要發(fā)生，而是理解其發(fā)生的科學(xué)機(jī)理。”

該計劃也呼吁建立一個收集與分析本國地震研究數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)中心，其主要目的是為研究人員提供信息，但也要對公眾開放。

通過公開信息，HERP希望提供對現(xiàn)有研究更好的回顧，防止以地震研究為名的資金濫用，此類研究常常得到豐富慷慨的資助，據(jù)說很容易逃避鑒別性的審查。

許多研究人員擔(dān)心開放數(shù)據(jù)會誤導(dǎo)公眾。“開放研究數(shù)據(jù)當(dāng)然對地震研究相關(guān)人員有幫助，但可以導(dǎo)致公眾誤解，”東京大學(xué)的羅伯特*蓋勒警告說，“比如說，在某一特定地區(qū)長期沒有地震可能會讓當(dāng)?shù)鼐用癞a(chǎn)生假的安全感。”

地震的物理過程，特別是其動態(tài)，仍舊需要更細(xì)致的研究，Matsuura說，因此公眾應(yīng)得到對地震現(xiàn)象細(xì)心的解釋，以便他們懂得發(fā)生了什么。

下面是原文：

Nature 397, 284 (28 January 1999)

Japan to try to understand quakes, not predict them

Asako Saegusa, tokyo, tokyo

Earthquake research in Japan should focus on understanding the mechanism of earthquakes, rather than predicting them, according to an advisory body to the Japanese prime minister. This shift is needed to develop new disaster prevention technologies.

The research plan was released last week by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP). It is intended to shape Japan’s earthquake research for the next decade, and will influence projects at national research institutes from April, when the 1999 fiscal year begins.

There is a growing perception in Japan that successful earthquake prediction may not be realistic. Last year, the Geodetic Council, which advises the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, made the first changes in its 30-year-old programme of attempting to predict imminent earthquakes, shifting its focus to long-term forecasts of areas likely to be struck by major tremors (see Nature 393, 202; 1998).

HERP’s plan goes further by promoting research and development in disaster prevention techniques independent of earthquake prediction, and by emphasizing basic research on earthquake processes through satellite observation, for example with the global positioning systems.

Set up in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake to promote collaboration between ministries, universities and research institutes, HERP sees the main aim of its plan as exploring ways to minimize the effects of major earthquakes. It seeks to do this by analysis and simulation of seismic ground motions, and by creating a system to gather real-time seismic data.

While the plan emphasizes some earthquake prediction research, such as studies of the geophysical and geostructural features of seismogenic zones, it calls for a departure from techniques based on data collection. It states that accurately predicting the timing of earthquakes is “exceptionally difficult” with current technology.

“Although the prediction programme has shifted its focus to making long-term forecasts, there is still no guarantee that this is actually possible,” says Mitsuhiro Matsuura, professor in seismology at Tokyo University. “The purpose of earthquake research is not to make a guess when an earthquake will strike, but to understand the scientific mechanism behind it.”

The plan also calls for a new data centre to collect and analyse information related to domestic earthquake research. While its prime objective would be to provide information to researchers, it would also be accessible to the public.

By opening up this information, HERP hopes to give a better view of present research, and to prevent the exploitation of funds in the name of earthquake research, which is often generously funded and is said to be more likely to escape critical review.

But many researchers are concerned that disclosing data could mislead the public. “The disclosure of research data would certainly be beneficial to those involved in earthquake research, but it could cause misunderstanding among the public,” warns Robert Geller, a seismologist at Tokyo University. “For example, the long-term absence of an earthquake in a particular region could give the residents a false sense of security.”

The physics of earthquake processes, especially their dynamics, still requires detailed research, says Matsuura. Therefore the public must be given a careful explanation of seismological phenomena so people understand what happens.